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Tuesday evening, after Election Day’s tranquility, new clamors will erupt as analysts with agendas tickle portents and lessons from the torrent of election returns. Herewith some developments to watch.
- In the 17 elections since World War II, the winner has averaged 385.4 electoral votes, the loser 145.1. In six elections (1952, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1984), a major-party candidate won fewer than 100. In the seven elections after 1984, no Democrat has received fewer than 111 (Michael Dukakis in 1988) and no Republican fewer than 159 (Bob Dole in 1996). Measure Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump accordingly.
- Republican nominees’ popular-vote totals this century are: 2000 (Bush) 50,455,156; 2004 (Bush) 62,040,610; 2008 (McCain) 59,934,814; 2012 (Romney) 60,932,152. Measure Trump’s total accordingly, bearing in mind that there are 10 million more eligible voters in 2016 than in 2012 and nearly 20 million more than in 2008.
- The “blue wall” consists of 18 states and the District of Columbia (totaling 242 electoral votes) that have voted Democratic in at least six consecutive elections: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin. Will Trump, who vowed to expand the battlefield, carry any of these?
- The Republicans’ ”red wall” (in at least six consecutive elections) consists of 13 states with 102 electoral votes: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming. Will Clinton come close to carrying Texas? Will she lose any age cohort there other than voters over 65?
- Will Trump’s louche lifestyle cost him culturally conservative Utah, which last voted Democratic in 1964, and which since then has voted Republican by an average of 36.1 points?
- The only Democrat to carry Arizona since 1948 was Bill Clinton in 1996. If his wife duplicates that feat, will this be because the state’s Mormon community recoiled from Trump?
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